Policy Papers
Breaking the Lock: Decoupling Belarus from Russia under EU Integration. Economic Dependencies, Risks, and Policy Options
Abstract
This paper examines Belarus’s potential European integration through the lens of decoupling from Russia and Russia-centered integration frameworks. While existing studies establish that the long-term benefits of EU integration outweigh transitional costs (Kruk & Karaitis, 2026) and outline corresponding policy strategies (Kruk & Makarchuk, 2026), this paper addresses a critical gap: how such a transition can be operationalized under conditions of deep structural and institutional dependence on a dominant partner. The analysis combines substantive (economic) and legal perspectives to assess Belarus’s dependence on Russia across production linkages, energy, trade, and finance, as well as its institutional commitments within the EAEU and the Union State. It shows that while legal constraints define the formal parameters of exit, the primary challenges arise from entrenched economic interdependencies. A scenario-based framework is used to evaluate the implications of different possible responses by Russia. The findings suggest that, under realistic assumptions, a strategy of relatively rapid disengagement may be more consistent with achieving long-term convergence, despite higher short-term adjustment costs. At the same time, the transition path cannot be fully predefined, and a range of sector-specific challenges, particularly in debt relations, value chains, financial exposure, and institutional continuity, require flexible policy responses. The paper identifies the energy sector as the most sensitive domain of adjustment. Rising energy prices following decoupling are likely to translate into significant increases in domestic tariffs, necessitating targeted support mechanisms and price-smoothing instruments. Overall, the results indicate that, despite substantial uncertainty and transitional costs, Belarus’s integration into the European Union remains both feasible and economically justified, provided that policy strategies are adaptive and responsive to evolving external conditions.