Express Analysis. September 2024

GDP of Belarus contracted in August, hit by volatility in agricultural production and oil refining.
GDP grew by 4.9% YoY in January–August 2024 and by ≈1% YoY in August alone, following an increase of ≈8.4% YoY in July (Figure 1.a). GDP (seasonally adjusted) contracted by ≈3–4.5% in August versus July after a brief uptick in the previous month (Figure 1.b). Output fluctuations in the 2024 summer months were largely determined by uneven grain harvesting in 2023 and 2024. At the same time, the GDP volume in August fell even below the levels of April-June 2024, which was probably due to the continuing problems in oil refining due to the bad weather in July.