Express Analysis. July 2024

Belarus' GDP growth greatly exceeded its balanced rate in Q2-2024, but its dynamics weakened in May–June. GDP grew by 5% YoY in January–June 2024, and it grew by ≈3.8% YoY in June only. Seasonally adjusted output remained near the level observed in May following a noticeable growth in the spring. Overall, GDP growth accelerated to 5.5% YoY in Q2-2024 following a 4.3% growth YoY in Q1-2024. GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) increased by ≈2.3–2.4% versus Q1-2024 and exceeded the 2021 average by ≈3.7%. The output dynamics greatly exceeded its balanced rate in Q2-2024. Overheating of the economy has increased to more than 3.5% of potential GDP (according to preliminary estimates).