Express Analysis. August 2024

Belarus' GDP growth accelerated in July due to climate factors, but an adjustment decline will occur in August. GDP grew by 5.5% YoY in January – July 2024, and it grew by ≈8.4% YoY in July only. Fluctuations in the annual output growth in June-July were due to the different number of working days in the first summer months of the current and last year, as well as the unevenness of the harvest. Seasonally adjusted GDP grew by approximately 1.6-1.8% in July versus June. The acceleration is explained by the faster pace of grain harvesting compared to 2023. Excluding the leftward shift in harvesting in June-July, seasonally adjusted GDP remained near its May 2024 peak.